February 25th, 2019

Notes on Chinese Economy 2018

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明白就明白。不明白再解释也不会明白。

2012 Anti-corruption campaign (反腐:不作为、央企民企脱钩)

2013 Circular No. 9 (9号文:质疑改革开放)
2013 Back to Real economy (回到实体经济:金融退场)

2014 Property market slowdown (房地产降温:地方政府没钱)

2015 Chinese stock market turbulence (股灾:一天回到解放前)

2016 Beidaihe signaled only SOE is favoured (北戴河:国进民退)

2017 Deleveraging (去杠杆:借不到钱)
2017 Arrest of high profile businessmen (抓钱袋子)
2017 19th Politburo – New Era (19大后新时代:政治博弈改金融博弈)

2018 Tax collections reformation (税务机构改革)
2018 P2P/ICO collapse (金融难民)
2018 margin call on at least 600 listed company (600家上市公司跌破平仓线)
2018 US impose tariff on China (美国增加关税)

2019 China grow rate at 6.6% in 2018 (2018中国GDP增长6.6%)

至于你们信不信,我反正信了!

June 8th, 2018

Why Chinese “lies” …

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November 18th, 2016

A Collision of Expectations

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This article is written as the contribution to GIIC as their commissioner.

The world’s economy is quickly approaching a potential crisis, and the impact could be far reaching. The crisis stems from a collision of conflicting expectations involving one of the largest economies ever, and includes tangible, large-scale impacts on real communities. At this late hour, it is unclear whether the crisis can be averted and if so, what the consequences of trade-offs might be.

In July, 2001 China concluded negotiations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and an agreement was ratified in December, 2001. Part of China’s understanding was that they would be granted Market Economy Status (MES) on the 15-year anniversary of the agreement, which will occur in December of this year. However, that understanding is not held by the other countries of the WTO and this disagreement has the potential to significantly impact economies around the world.

The accession to WTO opened up opportunities for Chinese industries, but has also brought about a number of unintended consequences. In the 90s, Europe was moving aggressively towards the use of renewal green energy, however manufacturing of solar cell in Europe was very costly because of the European environment protection regulations. The Europeans found a manufacturer in Wuxi, China who was able to provide solar cells very cheaply because of China’s less restrictive environmental protection regulations. The manufacturer became very successful and soon other companies began making solar cells. Unfortunately, the new manufacturers did not seek to enhance the original product, but chose to simply produce exact copies, which is usually the case in China. The “copycat” mindset often leads to overcapacity, and such was the case for solar cells in Wuxi. The European Union took notice of the situation and in 2011 cut back on demand, resulting in a large glut of solar cells, causing prices to plummet by nearly half.

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July 31st, 2016

”为什么来拉萨?”

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”为什么来拉萨?”

哥们多次邀请我去拉萨,因为工作原因次次推迟。所以周日我到拉萨,完成多年前给哥们的承诺。同时也希望能为西藏祈祷和平。

然而,上飞机前的痛风,下飞机后的高原反应,缺氧、呼气困难、胃口不好、痛疼、感冒、肺水肿。导游说所有可能有的高原反应我都中了。

拖拉行李,一半都是药。

”为什么来拉萨?”

”西藏是个神秘的地方,有着灿烂的阳光,洁白的云朵,纯净的天空,稀薄的空气,连绵的雪山,安静的湖泊。“

这里风景太漂亮了。这5天走过拉萨(罗布林卡和大昭寺)、纳木错、桑耶寺、 雍布拉康、羊湖。如果自己开车自驾游,路上的风景美如画。

然而,缺氧的感觉就是困。路途上大部分时间都在睡觉。而且缺氧严重感觉好像要死掉了。高原走起路来感觉老了20岁,上一层楼梯都会喘不过气。在蓝天白云绿水的纳木错,一步一步慢慢走着,一手拿着手机拍照,另外一只手拿着氧气筒。

风景再美,也无福消受。

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October 11th, 2015

What is “China’s Citizen Scores”?

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By now, many people have heard of the implementation of China’s “Citizen Scores” that has been making rounds. I become curious and did some investigation of my own.

As a boy scout as a kid, we used to play a game around campfire. The adult would form two teams and make two lines with 10 kids. He would the whisper the same exact message to first kid of the two teams, whereby they would repeat it to the next kid and so on until the last kid have to write the message down on paper. We always have a good laugh what comes out at the end compared to what went in.

“Citizen Score” is what happens when official news gets reposted, added with the journalist opinions, mixed in some new information (relevant or not), and repeated the process 10 times. To make it worst, most journalists in the process didn’t bother to, or was not able to do fact checking as the source is in Chinese.

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June 2nd, 2015

What’s going on in China domain name industy?

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Recently, there have been a lot of noise about China tightening control on new top levels and how it could severely damper domain names registrations in China and one should make preparation for the worst.

Initially, I tried to stay out of this as I know all the players behind this. But given there are at least 3 people who have email me to ask me what’s going on, I think let me clear the air here.

It started with a report by Brandma on China’s “Special Operation” to regulate Domain Name Registrations which warns that “Getting the license requires understanding on how the regulatory system works and how one should respond as it evolves. It’s also like a mini ICANN application process, but this time in Mandarin.”

Contrary to these “doomsayer” report, there is really no need to panic.

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May 25th, 2015

China New Economy : 互联网+第三版

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David Conrad,ICANN CTO是我多年的朋友。David可算是第一代互联网的前辈的前辈。在很多人都不知道互联网的时候,他担起全亚太区的IP分配工作(APNIC),哪个ISP/IDC需要IP地址给多少他一个人说人算,可算是亚太区的Jon Postel

我与David认识近20年,上周他来北京我们一起吃饭。我们聊起中国”互联网+”的口号和三版对于互联网公司的疯狂。对于我们这个经历第一代互联网的dot-com泡沫,第二代web 2.0的时代,到第三代移动社交互联网的世界,中国互联网+第三版就好比第一次NASDAQ Dot-Com的泡沫。

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NASDAQ 1994-2005
经历过1994-2004年的互联网的时代的人都会记得这个奇妙的时代。当年的股市对于互联网公司的疯狂,公司成立不到一年半载,卷商就猛追着塞钱给公司,尽快上市。只要有些互联网故事,成长速度快,不管赚钱不赚钱,就有大把的投资者追着公司投资。当年如果有人说这个是泡沫,很多分析师就会把这个人打下,说他不懂互联网,不懂”New Economy”。

那时候有很多奇妙的公司如webvan.com,96年成立,99年上市融3.75亿美金(估值48亿),01年破产。还有98年成立的pets.com, 99年NASDAQ上市,破产时候只有268天的公司。我也经历过那个疯狂。99年我成立的公司,2000年融资2400万美金,01年卷商估值5亿美金推我们上NASDAQ。当时董事会认为没有10亿美金估值不上,所以没上市。

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March 9th, 2015

传统企业互联网转型

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正和岛的朋友大家好。很荣幸被邀请在这个群内与大家分享与交流。今天我要说的话题是「传统企业互联网转型」。

在开始之前。。。

一,在过程中,我将稍作暂停以便大家提出意见与问题。我希望这是个互动交流。三人之行,必有我师。我更希望能有互动也能向各位学习。

二,我会分享预先准备的演讲稿。交流完毕后会整理发给大家。我也会把内容发布在网上微博微信。为了保证各位的隐私,我不会发布各位在群内的互动内容,所以请大家放心畅所欲言。

三,今天参与的这个互动我仅代表我个人意见。

好的,言归正传:「传统企业互联网转型」

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February 2nd, 2015

六张图解读互联网产品思路

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October 19th, 2014

Bringing back Network of Networks to ISP model

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A little project I am doing in China :-)

English subtitle is available (click on the “cc” icon on the player)