china

February 25th, 2019

Notes on Chinese Economy 2018

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明白就明白。不明白再解释也不会明白。

2012 Anti-corruption campaign (反腐:不作为、央企民企脱钩)

2013 Circular No. 9 (9号文:质疑改革开放)
2013 Back to Real economy (回到实体经济:金融退场)

2014 Property market slowdown (房地产降温:地方政府没钱)

2015 Chinese stock market turbulence (股灾:一天回到解放前)

2016 Beidaihe signaled only SOE is favoured (北戴河:国进民退)

2017 Deleveraging (去杠杆:借不到钱)
2017 Arrest of high profile businessmen (抓钱袋子)
2017 19th Politburo – New Era (19大后新时代:政治博弈改金融博弈)

2018 Tax collections reformation (税务机构改革)
2018 P2P/ICO collapse (金融难民)
2018 margin call on at least 600 listed company (600家上市公司跌破平仓线)
2018 US impose tariff on China (美国增加关税)

2019 China grow rate at 6.6% in 2018 (2018中国GDP增长6.6%)

至于你们信不信,我反正信了!

November 18th, 2016

A Collision of Expectations

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This article is written as the contribution to GIIC as their commissioner.

The world’s economy is quickly approaching a potential crisis, and the impact could be far reaching. The crisis stems from a collision of conflicting expectations involving one of the largest economies ever, and includes tangible, large-scale impacts on real communities. At this late hour, it is unclear whether the crisis can be averted and if so, what the consequences of trade-offs might be.

In July, 2001 China concluded negotiations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and an agreement was ratified in December, 2001. Part of China’s understanding was that they would be granted Market Economy Status (MES) on the 15-year anniversary of the agreement, which will occur in December of this year. However, that understanding is not held by the other countries of the WTO and this disagreement has the potential to significantly impact economies around the world.

The accession to WTO opened up opportunities for Chinese industries, but has also brought about a number of unintended consequences. In the 90s, Europe was moving aggressively towards the use of renewal green energy, however manufacturing of solar cell in Europe was very costly because of the European environment protection regulations. The Europeans found a manufacturer in Wuxi, China who was able to provide solar cells very cheaply because of China’s less restrictive environmental protection regulations. The manufacturer became very successful and soon other companies began making solar cells. Unfortunately, the new manufacturers did not seek to enhance the original product, but chose to simply produce exact copies, which is usually the case in China. The “copycat” mindset often leads to overcapacity, and such was the case for solar cells in Wuxi. The European Union took notice of the situation and in 2011 cut back on demand, resulting in a large glut of solar cells, causing prices to plummet by nearly half.

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July 31st, 2016

”为什么来拉萨?”

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”为什么来拉萨?”

哥们多次邀请我去拉萨,因为工作原因次次推迟。所以周日我到拉萨,完成多年前给哥们的承诺。同时也希望能为西藏祈祷和平。

然而,上飞机前的痛风,下飞机后的高原反应,缺氧、呼气困难、胃口不好、痛疼、感冒、肺水肿。导游说所有可能有的高原反应我都中了。

拖拉行李,一半都是药。

”为什么来拉萨?”

”西藏是个神秘的地方,有着灿烂的阳光,洁白的云朵,纯净的天空,稀薄的空气,连绵的雪山,安静的湖泊。“

这里风景太漂亮了。这5天走过拉萨(罗布林卡和大昭寺)、纳木错、桑耶寺、 雍布拉康、羊湖。如果自己开车自驾游,路上的风景美如画。

然而,缺氧的感觉就是困。路途上大部分时间都在睡觉。而且缺氧严重感觉好像要死掉了。高原走起路来感觉老了20岁,上一层楼梯都会喘不过气。在蓝天白云绿水的纳木错,一步一步慢慢走着,一手拿着手机拍照,另外一只手拿着氧气筒。

风景再美,也无福消受。

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October 11th, 2015

What is “China’s Citizen Scores”?

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By now, many people have heard of the implementation of China’s “Citizen Scores” that has been making rounds. I become curious and did some investigation of my own.

As a boy scout as a kid, we used to play a game around campfire. The adult would form two teams and make two lines with 10 kids. He would the whisper the same exact message to first kid of the two teams, whereby they would repeat it to the next kid and so on until the last kid have to write the message down on paper. We always have a good laugh what comes out at the end compared to what went in.

“Citizen Score” is what happens when official news gets reposted, added with the journalist opinions, mixed in some new information (relevant or not), and repeated the process 10 times. To make it worst, most journalists in the process didn’t bother to, or was not able to do fact checking as the source is in Chinese.

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June 2nd, 2015

What’s going on in China domain name industy?

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Recently, there have been a lot of noise about China tightening control on new top levels and how it could severely damper domain names registrations in China and one should make preparation for the worst.

Initially, I tried to stay out of this as I know all the players behind this. But given there are at least 3 people who have email me to ask me what’s going on, I think let me clear the air here.

It started with a report by Brandma on China’s “Special Operation” to regulate Domain Name Registrations which warns that “Getting the license requires understanding on how the regulatory system works and how one should respond as it evolves. It’s also like a mini ICANN application process, but this time in Mandarin.”

Contrary to these “doomsayer” report, there is really no need to panic.

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October 15th, 2014

宽带中国,可惜可呵呵

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如果你到中关村去,想买一台电脑。看中的是一台外观神奇的机器,标识写着:英特尔,4G内存。这时候导购哥们出现了。

你问:“四核双核?”他答:“买回去试试,就知道啦”。
你问:“硬盘多大?”他说:“越贵越大,但不做保证。”
你问:“可以玩游戏吗?”他答:“运气好可以。”

你还会买这台电脑吗?一个拳头都不过分。

但是很不幸,作为中国互联网网民,在安装家庭宽带这件事情上,我们不可避免地面临着明知被骗,也要心甘情愿掏钱的讽刺。因为宽带接入是一个黑即是白,不公重复多次即为标准的行业。

猜一猜,你家的网速实际是多少?

当他们保证你4M宽带时,打开淘宝,网页却“千呼万唤始出来”;当他们收取你10M宽带的年费,你看爱奇艺,缓冲时间却约等于放映时间;他们当然也不会事先告诉你,20M的网速意味着和家人Skype时,他们的笑容永远在凝固状态。

去质问宽带接入商:说好的流畅网速到哪儿去了?接入商耸耸肩,并迅速地根据对你“柔弱程度、白痴程度、气愤程度”的判断,流利地提供给你以下说辞的一种或几种。

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August 27th, 2014

中国离互联网精神还差很远

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从上个世纪末,互联网已经成为我们的生活方式。

对一个互联网工程师来说,互联网的最大魅力,不在于它可以让我和远国外的亲人只隔着一个屏幕那么远,不在于我可以随时知晓埃博拉的传播动态,也不在于我可以将我电脑中的电影推送到好友家中的NAS上。互联网的振奋人心之处,在于上世纪70年代创立互联网的那群极客的政治理想:端到端,去中心化,分布式,平等、开放,所带来的创新性。

互联网精神是共产主义的美好信念。它讲究无产阶级,人人公平,共建共享和开放奉献。TCP/IP协议是自愿遵循的,接入的同时意味着索取和奉献,我们获取信息,也生产内容;但互联网不是一个单一的主张:它不是狂热口号下人性穿上统一的衣裳。互联网没有统一的政治理想,哈耶克还是马克思,女性自由或者男权至上,全球变暖是不争的事实还是政治手段,都可以辩论。互联网拒绝理所当然,欢迎异见分子。

在互联网精神的核心下我们有了一张巨大创新能力的网。 有开源的Linux,免费的邮箱(SMTP),也有了腾讯,阿里巴巴与百度这些伟大的互联网企业。

然而,在过去的40年间,互联网精神在中国步履蹒跚。08年起,我开始在中国定居,从事互联网创业和互联网项目的投资。很快我发现,中国互联网与国际互联网差异巨大。

举例说明。92年起,我开始做互联网,也多年在亚洲与欧美国家为互联网事业走动,对于全球很多国家的互联网状况都不陌生。然而来到中国后,我第一次听到“南北互通”这个名词,在此之前,我在任何国家都未听过不同的网络需要解决互联互通的问题。我记得当时问我的下属:“不能互联互通的网还是互联网吗?”

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August 1st, 2013

China’s Category of Telecommunications Services

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This morning I read a catchy titled article on CircleID “China Closing the Door to New Technologies”. I was trying to make sense of what’s all the fuss is about …

So I called up my friends in Ministry of Industry and Information for lunch to find out what’s going.

Background

The document is called 电信业务分类目录 (Category of Telecommunications Services) that is now calling for public comments. This has been something MIIT have been working on for a quite some time now. Many companies, domestic and international companies, have been consulted and provided feedback before this publication.

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April 24th, 2010

.中国 and .台湾

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Finally after months of hard work from many people, in front and behind the scene, the ICANN board finally resolved:

* Therefore, it is RESOLVED, (2010.04.22.10), that CNNIC be notified that the .中国 (xn--fiqs8S) and .中國 (xn--fiqz9S) IDN ccTLD request has completed the Fast Track String Evaluation and that they may enter the String Delegation step in the Fast Track Process, using the standard IANA ccTLD delegation function, and that delegation is contingent on completion of the IANA process criteria and publication of CNNIC’s detailed Implementation Plan to be finalized in consultation with ICANN.

* Therefore, it is RESOLVED, (2010.04.22.11), that TWNIC be notified that .台灣 (xn--kpry57d) and .台湾 (xn--kprw13d) IDN ccTLD request has completed the Fast Track String Evaluation and that they may enter the String Delegation step in the Fast Track Process, using the standard IANA ccTLD delegation function, and that delegation is contingent on completion of the IANA process criteria and publication of TWNIC’s detailed Implementation Plan to be finalized in consultation with ICANN.

Cheers!!!!

February 20th, 2010

Making sense of Sino-US relationship

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US strategy towards China has been particularly confusing to many people. It is strange that the two major economic power of the world today would taunt each another in so many different issues. This UK Guardian article nicely summarized the situation.

This dysfunctional, agitating approach to Sino-US negotiations and communications only continues to erode the relationship between the two countries, which has already been weakened recently as a result of US comments over internet censorship and the sale of arms to Taiwan. This should not become the normal way for the two nations to engage, particularly when it comes to bilateral issues.

One obvious difference between US and China is the ‘Culture Differences’. ‘Culture differences’ is often used to explain the disagreement but seldom really understood. The background and construct of the political system between the two country couldn’t be greater, that leads to misunderstanding and mistrust.

Let me give two examples:

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